Neumann János Egyetem GAMF Műszaki és Informatikai Kar

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Meghívó prof. Dr. Ephraim Suhir előadására

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Prof. Dr. Ephraim Suhir: Making an Electronics Device into a Product:
       Probabilistic Design for Reliability (PDfR) Concept and the Role of Failure-Oriented-Accelerated-Testing (FOAT) 

Dátum: 2018. október 29. (hétfő) 14:00 - 15:30

Helyszín: NJE GAMF MIK, Nagyelőadó

Kulcsszavak: probabilistic design, reliability, failure-oriented-accelerated-testing, highly-accelerated-life-testing

A tartalomból:

When high operational reliability of an electronic product is critical, it has to be assured. This could not be done, if the underlying physics of failure of the product is not well understood and its operational probability of failure is not predicted (quantified). This probability cannot be high, but does not have to be lower than necessary either: it has to be adequate for a particular product and application. Superfluously low probability of failure could be an indication that the product is over-engineered, i.e., too robust for the given application and, because of that, is more costly than it could and should be. This is another important reason why the operational performance of an electronic product should be quantified. Because nothing is perfect, such quantification should be carried out on the probabilistic basis. In effect, the difference between highly reliable and insufficiently reliable products is “merely” the difference between the levels of their never-zero probabilities of failure.

The recently suggested probabilistic design for reliability (PDfR) concept makes the art of making reliable electronic products into a substantiated science. Highly focused and highly cost-effective failure-oriented-accelerated-testing (FOAT) designed and conducted for the most vulnerable material(s) and structural element(s) of the product; geared to a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful predictive model; aimed at understanding of the underlying reliability physics and at the quantification of the likelihood of the expected failure is the heart and the experimental basis of the PDfR concept. It is suggested that FOAT is geared to a flexible, powerful and reliability-physics-based multi-parametric Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) constitutive equation (model). The general concepts are illustrated by numerical examples. FOAT could be viewed as an extension of the highly-accelerated-life-testing (HALT) and conducted within the framework of HALT. While HALT is a “black box”, i.e. a methodology without a clear knowledge of the underlying physics and the likelihood of failure, FOAT is a “white box” that considers the physics of possible failures and quantifies their likelihood. The differences, pros-and-cons and possible interactions between FOAT and HALT are discussed in detail. 

It is suggested particularly that HALT is used for “rough tuning” of the product’s robustness, while FOAT is employed when “fine tuning” is needed, i.e., when there is a need to quantify, assure and, if possible and appropriate, even specify the operational performance of the product.

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